From Ukraine to the Sahara: new and unexpected alliances

Kyiv is accused of providing support to Tuareg militias against the Russian Wagner “security forces” hired by the Malian government.

In the heart of the Sahara, an intricate mosaic of international tensions is being painted in increasingly dark hues. A recent armed clash in the remote locality of Tinzaouaten, in the Kidal region on the edge of the Algerian desert, has triggered a butterfly effect that propagates far beyond African borders, reaching the war-torn lands of Eastern Europe. The Malian government, led after the 2021 coup by Colonel Abdoulaye Maiga, has made an unprecedented decision: the immediate cessation of diplomatic relations with Ukraine. This drastic move was triggered by statements from Kyiv that have shaken the foundations of international relations in the region. Ukrainian intelligence, in an unexpected admission, revealed its indirect involvement in an operation that led to an armed clash between Tuareg separatists and Wagner militia mercenaries. Last week, Andrii Yusov, spokesman for Ukrainian military intelligence, surprisingly declared that “the Tuareg rebels received the necessary information that allowed them to successfully carry out an operation against the Russian Wagner war criminals,” without clarifying what assistance the rebels received. The consequences of this attack were devastating: an unspecified number of mercenaries belonging to the Wagner group and Malian soldiers lost their lives in what Bamako authorities described as an ambush. According to some reports, at least 20 Wagner Russian mercenaries were killed, while Tuareg separatists claim to have eliminated 84 Russian mercenaries and 47 Malian soldiers.

This event has shed new light on the complex web of alliances and rivalries that characterizes contemporary geopolitics. On one side, the presence of Russian Wagner mercenaries, now a constant in various African scenarios; on the other, the unexpected Ukrainian intervention, which projects the Russian-Ukrainian tensions far beyond Eastern European borders. In this complex scenario, the presence of the Tuareg rebels, historical actors of Saharan dynamics, whose struggle for autonomy now intertwines with much broader global interests, is also inserted. Moreover, the ambush allegedly involved jihadist armed groups, particularly Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, a local branch of al Qaeda operating in northern Mali for years. Mali’s reaction was swift. In an indignant statement, the military junta’s spokesman strongly condemned the Ukrainian action, emphasizing how it caused casualties among Malian soldiers and the so-called Russian “security forces.” However, Bamako refrained from providing a precise casualty count, further fueling speculations about the severity of the incident. Despite this, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs “firmly rejected the accusations of the transitional government of Mali,” branding the diplomatic break as a “hasty and short-sighted” gesture. This event marks a turning point in the international relations of the Sahel. Indeed, Mali, already in tension with Western powers due to its rapprochement with Russia, now finds itself on a collision course with Ukraine, an unexpected actor in this theater. The decision to break diplomatic relations with Kyiv could have repercussions far beyond the region, influencing power balances in an already extremely volatile and violent area. The web of interests emerging from this affair involving Mali, Russia through Wagner mercenaries, Ukraine and its secret services, Tuareg rebels, and jihadist groups paints an extraordinarily complex picture. This episode demonstrates how contemporary conflicts no longer know geographical boundaries, and how tensions in one part of the world can quickly spread, creating new alliances and enmities in seemingly distant regions. As the dust settles on the dunes of Tinzaouaten, a theater of violent clashes in a desert area with few rocky shelters battered by sandstorms, the consequences of this clash could reverberate far beyond the Sahel, reshaping alliances and strategies in an increasingly interconnected and unpredictable global context.